Everyone has a guess about what 2009-10 holds in store for Carolina basketball, however nobody knows. There simply isn’t enough evidence for me to make reasonable predictions at this point. I’ve read the message boards and talk of how we can’t shoot. I’ve seen the #6 rankings. I’ve heard how long we are. I’m super excited about tonight but I have no idea where this team will be seeded in March. I could even envision a scenario where North Carolina missed the tournament. Of course, that too would be unreasonable to predict. I prefer to keep expectations in check at this point so allow me to make some pretty pessimistic points.

There are no significant offensive contributors left from last year’s team. Deon Thompson and Ed Davis for decent offensive role players but neither was asked to handle a large workload. Thompson had an eFG lower than all but Drew and Frasor last season. We all know how rad and efficient the offense was last year. It has been our bread and butter since Roy took over….We may not guard you better, but it won’t matter because you can’t stop us. Can the identity of a basketball team do a 180 and still be as successful? We don’t know.

Yes, we have the third highest ranked recruiting class coming in. But what exactly does that mean?

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=9&c=4&cfg=bb&yr=2008

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=9&c=4&cfg=bb&yr=2005

I can’t wait to watch Henson. Strickland may end up being exactly what we need. The Wear twins have gone from being unlikely to see minutes to perhaps the most ready to play based on one exhibition. This class might be just like 2002 or 2006 but it might be something entirely different. We don’t know.

This team is going to have so little in common from last year’s team that I imagine even Roy will have a hard time adjusting. If the rumors about our perimeter shooting are true and we can’t shoot from outside, we’ll see zones packed every night. If we don’t have someone who can run the secondary break effectively then we’ll not be having any biscuits. I’m sure Roy has a plan (the new offense) but will it work? We don’t know.

Having blogged all this, I’m still geeked for tonight and I’m thinking this season is going to way more fun that I’ve made it sound. The point I’m trying to make is that the possibilities are longer than our team is and we’ll know more soon enough.

North Carolina was always the most likely champion in 08-09, yet they were still unlikely to be the 08-09 champions. That may seem like non-sense, but despite all of the talent, experience, and *chemistry*…the odds were that one of the other 346 Division teams would end up on top. Leaving probability theory aside now, I must admit that I seriously questioned this team all season. It annoyed me that some said this team was soft or that they did not play hard. I felt that, instead, many over-estimated this team’s talent and sold short its effort. No matter. Few will ever question this team’s talent or effort any longer.

Now maybe, it WAS a down year in college basketball and perhaps it WAS just coincidence that in each of the last six contests; Carolina’s opponents shot terribly. More likely…there was something to the hypetasticness. Teams knew how lethal this basketball team was on offense when they got going and the pressure was immense. I’m not taking anything away from the defense. Ed Davis made a huge difference. For every shot that he blocked this year, he altered two others and even more important were the shots that teams avoided taking anywhere near him. The willingness to fight through screens against teams like Dook, Gonzaga, and Villanova was very impressive. Danny and Tywon might not ever come anywhere near an all-defensive team, but Green’s sick rejections and Lawson’s thievery kept other teams from getting easy baskets in transition. Tyler, Wayne and Deon are also poor defensive players, but all three were impressive on the boards all tournament long, often limiting very good rebounding teams to one shot.

So…I’m not taking anything from the defense…but what made this team special…and what most likely was responsible for the opposition’s poor shooting…was an absolutely fantastic offense. There was rarely someone on the court that opponents could double off of. There were threats inside and threats outside. Everyone could score in transition and everyone could run the motion offense against a set defense. Everyone could shoot well from the field (cough Bobby) and everyone could shoot well from the line. This team was mad proficient with the ball and the effort teams put into slowing us down surely cost opponents the legs they would need to outscore North Carolina. As Carolina fans, we are truly fortunate, to be able to watch and support players like Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, Tywon Lawson, and Tyler Hansbrough for 3+ years.

Roy Williams also deserves mention here. I’m not sure the expectations his arrival has brought to the program always increases our enjoyment as much as they should. I’m not sure I understand the psychology of expectations, but the Lawson-Hansbrough epoch has an awful lot of critics for a team that was never beaten by a bad team, never failed to advance to at least the Elite 8, only lost 3 non-ACC games overall (Gonzaga, Georgetown, Kansas),won three ACC regular season titles (if they exist), two ACC tournament titles, beat Dook 5 out of 6 times, and won a national championship. Yet, we all read and heard the nitpicks and bitching about a time out here, a end of game play there, Bobby/QT getting minutes in this game, the collapse against a very good Hoyas team, the impotent start against a very good Jayhawks team, etc etc. 101-14 for f*cks sake. Let me type that again with proper spacing:

101 wins

14 losses

Maybe, Roy Williams is pretty decent at this coaching thing. Look at where Kentucky and Indiana are before you think that Carolina ‘recruits itself’. The Roy Williams era is quite rad.

I prefer not to get into comparing Carolina basketball teams. Romanticism and cheese admitted, I love every Carolina basketball team and even if I do have favorites, there is no need to pick. This season has been a tough one for me off the court couch. I’ve lost a great deal over the last year and whether it was the brain cancer that took a dear friend (and JMP contributor) or my own mistakes that cost me dearly, real loss has been with me. Carolina basketball has always been one of my passions and while I will not get all ridiculous and write something like ‘this team was there for me, man’….the sense of community and ritual …well….it has been more than just a distraction for me. We are just a bit blessed to be in love with such a fantastic program, no? This was somehow both predictable and unlikely.

That was a bad day o sport. An expected loss from my Dolphins and an unexpected loss from my Tar Heels makes for a lousy end to the holiday. I don’t have much to say about the gridiron. Baltimore was better and even though there were some opportunities for Miami to pull out a win, the Ravens were able to move the ball at will.

I have plenty of thoughts overreactions about the basketball game.

1. We are not as good as we thought. I love Basketball Prospectus and even though basketball stats are limited in what they can tell us, I generally agree with much of their content. This, on the other hand is ridiculous. There have been several better basketball teams than the 08-09 Tar Heels in the last 13 years. We have a very deep, experienced, and talented team. Still the reason we are so deep with experience is that none of our players were lottery projected last season. The 04-05 team was better. Certainly you could argue that the chemistry or whatever is better but when I say better, I mean more talented. Dook in 99 was more talented that this team too and I’m sure if I had not been drinking since 1 pm I could think of others as well. I’m not trying to blog that these guys are not good or that they are not the best team in the country this year. I admit to wondering how good this team was after watching us destroy 13 teams. This was not a wake up call. The wake up call was BC by six at the half. They beat the crap out of us. Whether you prefer the anecdotal evidence of BC getting layup after layup while many of our players struggled to finish easy baskets or whether you prefer the NBA draft projections, this team is not even the best team Roy Williams has had since he returned to Chapel Hill.
2. Play Ed Davis. I have a mad crush on the kid. The baby faced lefty is Deon’a equal on offense and much better on D. He is our best rebounder. Deon is a fine player and has shown massive improvement. It is not his fault that Ed is probably our most talented player. Get him more than 16 minutes.
3. Don’t send the team to Reno for New Year’s Eve three days before the ACC opener. Who knows if it had anything to do with shooting 29 percent in the second half and missing key free throws down the stretch?
4. Danny Green is way more important than I realized. It does not appear that he can be replaced.
5. Tyrese Rice owned Tywon. Lawson has been our best player this season, and if he had played better we might have pulled it out. Perhaps it was just one of those games but it sure was unsettling too see Tywon get outplayed for the first time since April 5, 2008.
6. This was not a good loss. I’m sure Caulton and others will talk about the ‘lessons’ learned about having to do more than show up. Losing your first conference home game is a very bad sign. We did lose two at home last season but if Dook and Wake are as good as they’ve looked at times, we may end up competing with them for a #1 seed. Perhaps Roy will git after em and also play Ed Davis more and we’ll look back at this as a turning point. It will never be a good loss.
7. I apologize for that picture but if we don’t play our best players instead of our most experienced or hard working players, we are headed for a year like 1994. That team was deep and experienced too. I trust Roy and this blog is clearly an attempt to deal with a tough day o sport, but tonight was a bit worrying, no?

So…the ‘Lates Links’ era is over. This is mostly because my employers are asshats and have blocked everyone’s access to all wordpress and blogspot sites. If I can’t read Tar Heel Fan and EPL talk, how can I link and react? I do miss the blog though, so I’m going to try posting articles from time to time. This may be a disaster. These ‘articles’ may not have anything to do with Carolina athletics, so feel free to ignore my weblog.

The first Sunday of the gridiron season is quite a religious experience. You have faith (unless a Ram supporter). You have the body (wings) and blood (beer). You have the church (sports bar) where you may share the experience with fellow believers. You have good and evil.
Once I put reason aside to enjoy my religion, Tom Brady represents evil. I support the Dolphins and he plays for a side that is a symbol of all that is wrong in the world. So, when he went down in the first half hour of the service, I excitedly announced to the congregation: “Tom Brady is limping off the field!”
What the f*ck is wrong with me?
Not a thing, really.
In the Joy of Sports, Michael Novak writes that, “Sports flow outward into action from a deep natural impulse that is radically religious: an impulse of freedom, respect for ritual limits, a zest for symbolic meaning, and a longing for perfection. I don’t mean that participation in sports, as athlete or fan, makes one a believer in ‘God,’ under whatever concept, image, or experience one attaches the name. Rather, sports drive one in some dark and generic sense ‘godward.’”
You see, I don’t have much against Tom Brady, the person. Sure, he attended George W. Bush’s State of the Union address in 2004 and has identified Gerald Ford as a political hero. Yes, he has dumped a pregnant former model for a newer um, model. OK, he has been quoted as saying that ESPN hates the Patriots, even though their most read columnist fellates Brady and the Patriots on a monthly basis.
Still, I don’t really know whether Brady is a douche bag or not unless he enters the blacker and whiter world of sport. How else could you support grown men and women you’ve never met and have no control over? At this point, Brady transcends my liberal values. I don’t concur that you should hope he gets sacked but not injured. I take absolutely no joy in his talent, because as a believer, I see that he uses that talent in support of evil.
The moment when Brady fell might have been awkward. It might have been an opportunity for me to turn off my willing suspension of disbelief that I engage anytime I prepare to watch sport. It might even mean that I need to find another religion.
On the other hand, perhaps this is not just about faith. Social comparison studies have shown that those with lower self-esteem are more likely to take pleasure in other’s pain.
I’m a Miami Dolphin fan for f*cks sake, one who was born after they won all of those titles.
Other studies have shown that when male subjects witnessed people they perceived as evil being shocked, their scans lit up in brain areas associated with pleasure.
Apparently my joy at Tom Brady’s pain is just a part of what makes me human. So with sport being my religion, a place where I can accept no control and invest myself anyways, I need not concern myself with going too far with this.
I’m still glad that Tom Brady is out for rest of the season.

yep.  Where are the haters now?

Not sure when or if I’ll be posting daily again. I’ll still throw out the occasional blog though.

Brief blog this morning as I have work to do here at work. Bob Holiday writes some nonsense about loving college life. I love college life, but at some point you have to make a living, no? Camp is over and all three Heels will have a few private workouts with some teams before making their decisions.  Lawson only played one day and it seems he may have heard what he wanted from people in the know. No, Jim Young, I did not wince. All three have a legitimate shot at being drafted in the first round. All three have a legitimate risk of not being drafted in the first round.

The Dodgers have not been killing enough rallies. Not worth reading anymore, really. He is crazy.

From Chad Ford:

The best matchup of the night pitted UNC’s Ty Lawson versus Tennessee -Martin’s Lester Hudson. Lawson came in with the blue-chip pedigree but with a draft stock that’s taken a beating this year. Hudson comes from a small school and a checkered background, but he had wowed scouts and executives in the early drills.

Hudson’s stock looked to be on the rise while Lawson’s seemed to be free-falling.

Both players came off the bench at the 10-minute mark and guarded each other. The verdict was an overwhelming knockout for Lawson, who dominated Hudson on both ends of the ball. Lawson’s tenacious defense forced Hudson into five early turnovers and a couple of bad shots. Meanwhile Lawson kept pushing the ball and making things happen.

Hudson ended the game with four points on 2-for-6 shooting with five assists and five turnovers. Lawson’s numbers weren’t spectacular. He had 10 points, four assists and shot 4-for-10 from the field. However several GMs walked away impressed with Lawson.

“He came out with great energy and played like he had something to prove,” one GM said. “He kicked Hudson’s [butt]. I think he helped himself.”

As for the other two:

UNC’s Wayne Ellington may have had the worst performance of the day. He was just 3-for-10 from the field and had a Wednesday-high six turnovers. His teammate, Danny Green didn’t fare much better — also going 3-for-10 from the field.

Good to read that Tywon is showing what he can do. Poor Danny really can’t afford to be injured right now. Wayne probably just needs to relax, though ball handling is a legitimate weakness. Hopefully they’ll all have a great day today. Read more about the day here and here.

There seems to be some more confusion about what ‘testing the water’ means. I can certainly understand that. Is it an adventure sport? Is it a guideline for receiving matching federal election funding? Is it a condom examination?

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — The three North Carolina underclassmen here aren’t testing the NBA draft process.

They want in. They want to be all the way in.

Oh dear. They’ve all signed with an agent.

The problem for sophomores Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and junior Danny Green is that finding a first- or second-round guarantee before the June 16 deadline to withdraw from the draft might not be feasible.

Definately a problem…maybe they should see how it goes and then decide.

But it could be a gamble that all might be willing to make if they can play well this week at the pre-draft camp and then during individual workouts for various teams around the league.

So, they are testing the waters! They don’t want all they way in yet. Very smart of them.

Lawson, the most likely of the three to be a first-round pick, said that North Carolina put out a statement that the players were testing the waters, a commonly used phrase for anyone who decides to declare for the draft but doesn’t sign with an agent.

“But that’s not the truth,” he said Tuesday. “Everybody is in the draft to stay in the draft unless [they get hurt]. Comments like that are misleading to NBA teams, to say we’re just testing the waters.”

Unless-except on the condition that : under any other circumstance than.

In North Carolina’s defense, the phrase is part of the vernacular among NBA teams and colleges at this time of the year. And NBA personnel are smart enough to know whether a player is just trying to improve his name recognition or truly wants to stay in the draft.

All three Carolina players said they want to stay in the draft. But they’re also realistic, and that’s why they didn’t sign with an agent. They understand they’re not a given to go high enough in the draft to warrant skipping out on their remaining eligibility at Chapel Hill.

In North Carolina’s defense, they understand what the moronic metaphor means.

Lawson mentions he wants to go in the top 20. David Glenn writes about why that matters. Tar Heel Fan blogs on the the fans dilemma. It is a good post and we can all understand the conflict that every Carolina supporter is dealing with. I’ll be very happy if they all come back and I’ll be very happy for them if they are drafted. They all want to make a living playing basketball and none of the three players has done anything deserving of our scorn. Danny has taken some heat and I think that is ridiculous. He and his father have been honest and even if you think his decisions have been foolish (I don’t), they are his decisions.

This is just stupid. Flopping is no worse than it was in the 80s. Many are blaming it on the foreigners like Varjejao which is really a small step away from xenophobia. Nats were completely outclassed. Project 2010 is right on schedule. I love the grizzly bear one.

According to Tim Reynolds; Danny Green, Tywon Lawson, and Wayne Ellington are eager to find out where they will be drafted. The Posse can relate. Greg Barnes had a few questions for the three gentlemen and it appears Danny would return if  he’s not projected in the first round. Wayne mentions that he also is on the bubble and Tywon is ready to show that he is healthy. Draft Express has a report from Day One as does NBA draftnet.

I have to say that I am looking forward to the meaningless game in Wembley tonight. I understand that Jozy is busy with MLS. I have no problem with league football taking precedence, but why in Preki’s name can’t the league adjust their schedule to FIFA like every other decent league. Anyways, I fear a beating for the Nats. Capello can’t afford  a loss to the US so early in his reign. Plus,  those English tw*ts have to have a little bit of pride, and should be sore from not being part of all of the Euro hype.

FANNNTASTIC call. Ordering one of these right now. Sp*rs finally pass Arsenal. Ric switching teams?